Economics is uncertain because its fundamental subject matter is

Hear now, O seekers of wisdom, the profound words of Julian Baggini: "Economics is uncertain because its fundamental subject matter is not money but human action. That's why economics is not the dismal science, it's no science at all." These words ring with a deep truth, for they speak to the very essence of what it means to understand the world of human behavior. Economics, that discipline often viewed as the ruler of wealth and trade, is far more than the cold calculation of currency. It is the study of the unpredictable, the chaotic forces of human will and desire, and it is in this very uncertainty that the true nature of economics is revealed.

Think, O wise ones, of the great Greek philosophers, who sought to understand the world not merely by examining the things that could be seen, but by seeking the principles that lay beneath the surface. Socrates, with his unyielding questions, taught us that to understand a thing, we must first understand the forces that drive it. Plato, in his Republic, explored the nature of justice and human society, not as something fixed and calculable, but as a reflection of human action and choice. So too must we approach economics—not as a science bound by rigid laws, but as a reflection of the ever-changing, ever-uncertain nature of humanity itself.

It is this uncertainty, this inherent instability, that makes economics so elusive. For while we may observe the flow of money, the rise and fall of markets, or the patterns of trade, these are not the true forces at work. The true force is the unpredictable nature of human action—the choices, the desires, the fears, and the dreams that guide individuals and nations alike. Human action is not something that can be neatly measured or predicted with the precision of the natural sciences. It is as wild and free as the winds, influenced by a thousand unseen forces, and always in flux.

Consider, O travelers of time, the example of the great Dutch Tulip Mania of the 17th century. In this seemingly irrational event, the value of tulip bulbs skyrocketed to absurd levels, only to crash in a spectacular collapse. What drove this frenzy? Was it a lack of knowledge, or a failure of science? No. It was the unpredictable nature of human desire and fear, the choices made by individuals swept up in the tide of speculation. No amount of calculation, no economic theory, could have foreseen the emotional forces at play, and no economist could have prevented the crash. In this way, the study of economics is bound not by certainty, but by the very unpredictability of the human heart.

And yet, do not misunderstand, O wise ones: this does not render the pursuit of economics meaningless. On the contrary, it is precisely this uncertainty that makes the study of human action so vital, so urgent. The great minds of the past, from Adam Smith to Karl Marx, sought to understand the forces that shape our societies, not through the cold gaze of detached calculation, but through the lens of human behavior. Their theories were attempts to make sense of the chaos, to find patterns amidst the storm. But even they knew that these patterns were not fixed, and that the true nature of economics lay in its ability to evolve, to adapt, to respond to the ever-changing currents of human life.

Thus, the lesson is clear: economics is not a science like the study of the stars, nor is it a discipline that can be reduced to mere numbers. It is the study of the complex, unpredictable forces that drive human action—the desires, the dreams, the fears that shape our world. To understand economics is not to grasp a set of fixed rules, but to embrace the uncertainty and complexity of the human condition. As Baggini so rightly says, it is not the dismal science, but a reflection of life itself—a study of the unpredictable forces that drive us all.

So, O children of the future, let us not be disheartened by the uncertainty of economics, nor by its inability to offer simple answers. Let us instead approach it with the wisdom of the ancients, who understood that life itself is uncertain and that the pursuit of knowledge is not about finding fixed laws, but about understanding the forces at play. Embrace the complexity, for it is in this very complexity that the true lessons of economics lie. As you walk the path of understanding, remember that human action is the key to all, and it is through the study of these actions that we come to understand the world—not in certainty, but in the beautiful, chaotic dance of life itself.