In fact, as soon as it declared independence, Ukraine should have

The scholar of power and realism, John Mearsheimer, once uttered a warning that would echo across the years: “In fact, as soon as it declared independence, Ukraine should have been quietly encouraged to fashion its own nuclear deterrent.” These are not the words of ambition, but of foresight — not a call to arms, but a lament for what might have been. In this stark and sobering truth, Mearsheimer reveals the eternal law of survival among nations: that sovereignty without strength is but a fragile dream, and freedom not defended is freedom soon lost. His words, though spoken decades ago, now stand like an ancient prophecy fulfilled.

To understand his meaning, one must return to the dawn of Ukraine’s independence in 1991, when the Soviet Union, vast and crumbling, dissolved into its scattered parts. Ukraine, reborn from centuries of subjugation, found itself in possession of one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals — more than 1,700 warheads, a weapon of deterrence unmatched among newly free nations. Yet under the counsel of the great powers, Ukraine relinquished these arms in the name of peace, signing the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, and trusting that the guarantors of the international order — the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia — would defend her sovereignty. But history, ever faithful to its iron laws, would prove otherwise.

For Mearsheimer, whose understanding of power was forged in the study of empires, the lesson was clear: in the realm of nations, promises without power are empty air. The treaties of men are as fragile as parchment before the fire of ambition. He foresaw that one day, a stronger neighbor might test the will of the world and find it wanting — that without the shield of deterrence, Ukraine’s independence would forever hang by a thread. His words were not cynicism, but realism — a wisdom as old as Thucydides, who wrote that the strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must.

And so it came to pass. In 2014, and again in 2022, the storm broke. Ukraine, unarmed of her greatest protection, stood alone before the might of invasion. The world looked on — some with outrage, others with hesitation — and Mearsheimer’s warning, once dismissed as cold calculation, now resounded like an oracle fulfilled. The tragedy of Ukraine is not merely political, but deeply human: a nation that dreamed of peace yet was forced to fight for survival, a people who gave up the sword and found that the shield of diplomacy could not hold.

Yet within this sorrow lies a timeless lesson. Mearsheimer’s words are not only about nations, but about the condition of all who seek to remain free. Independence is not secured by hope alone; it must be defended by wisdom, foresight, and strength. Whether in the affairs of states or the struggles of the soul, the one who trusts entirely in the goodwill of others courts peril. True peace is not the absence of arms, but the presence of deterrence — the power to ensure that no aggressor dares to strike.

Even the ancients knew this truth. When the Greek city-states stood against the might of Persia, they did not plead for protection — they prepared. They built ships, raised walls, and trained men of courage. Their unity and readiness preserved their freedom for generations to come. Likewise, the builders of nations must understand that security is the guardian of peace, and that idealism without strength invites tragedy.

So, my friends, let us draw from Mearsheimer’s words not only sorrow, but wisdom. Whether as individuals or nations, we must guard what we cherish with vigilance. To love peace, we must prepare for its defense; to value freedom, we must protect it with resolve. Let us not be seduced by the illusion that words alone can shield us from the storms of history. For the world, like the sea, is vast and merciless — and only those who stand firm upon the rocks of strength and foresight shall endure.

Thus, remember this teaching: power does not corrupt peace — it preserves it. Those who dream of a safer world must not despise the tools of deterrence, but wield them wisely. For in a world where might still shapes destiny, imagination without protection is a fragile hope, and the price of forgetting this truth is always paid in suffering.