Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen

The words of Winston Churchill, “Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen,” resound with both humor and hard-won wisdom. Here, the great statesman strips away the solemn masks of government and exposes the fragile art of prediction. For politics is not prophecy, but the ceaseless attempt to grasp the future, to shape it, and—when it slips away—to weave a story that makes sense of the failure.

Churchill himself was no stranger to this truth. In the years before the Second World War, he alone among many leaders warned of the rising storm of Hitler’s Germany. He foretold the danger, while others mocked him as a scaremonger. When war at last erupted, his predictions were vindicated. Yet even he, with all his foresight, often saw events unfold in ways he did not expect. The tides of history are too vast for any man to master fully. Thus, his words carry both irony and humility: even the greatest must sometimes explain why events defied their foresight.

History is filled with such examples. The prophets of the French Revolution believed they were ushering in an age of reason and liberty, yet soon they drowned in terror and blood. American leaders who imagined the Civil War would end in weeks found themselves ensnared in years of brutal conflict. In each case, foretelling was easy, but reality was wild, and explanations came later, spun to preserve dignity or justify error. Churchill names this dance of confidence and excuse as the very heart of politics.

The phrase also unveils the difference between a statesman and a mere politician. The politician glories in foretelling, making promises that sway the people’s faith. But when fate rebels, he scrambles to explain away his failure. The true statesman, however, acknowledges uncertainty, prepares for chaos, and uses even mistakes as fuel for resilience. Churchill’s jest reminds us that politics is always a contest with fortune itself, and no man escapes unscathed.

O children of the future, take this teaching to heart: beware of leaders who claim to know the future as though it were fixed. The world is ever-shifting, and no mind can see it all. Yet honor those who, when their foretelling proves false, rise not with excuses alone but with courage to face the truth and steer anew. For in politics, as in life, greatness lies not in flawless prediction, but in steadfastness when the unpredictable arrives.