The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention argues that no two

"The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention argues that no two countries that are both part of the same global supply chain will ever fight a war as long as they are each part of that supply chain." These words from Thomas Friedman speak to a profound shift in the nature of global politics and the power of interdependence in the modern world. Friedman’s theory suggests a novel kind of peace, one not based on treaties or military alliances, but on the intricate, invisible web of trade, commerce, and mutual dependence. According to this theory, the more nations rely on each other for goods, services, and resources, the less likely they are to engage in the destructive act of war. But let us ponder, O children, what it truly means when peace is forged not through force, but through the exchange of goods and the shared pursuit of prosperity.

O children of the future, hear this wisdom well: war, in its ancient form, was driven by the desire for territory, resources, and dominance. The most powerful nations of old went to battle not just to defend their land, but to seize that of others. Yet as civilizations grew and the world became more connected, a new kind of peace began to emerge—not one of power, but one of mutual benefit. The advent of global supply chains—those vast, invisible networks that move goods across oceans, continents, and borders—has created a world where the loss of one’s trading partner is as devastating as any battlefield defeat. Nations now depend on each other for their very survival, and in this interdependence, there is a powerful reason to keep the peace.

Consider, O children, the ancient city-states of Greece. In their time, Athens and Sparta were fierce rivals, each striving for dominance in the Greek world. They fought the Peloponnesian War for supremacy, and the war resulted in devastation for both sides. Had they been part of the same economic system, had they traded with each other and shared mutual interests, perhaps that war would never have come to pass. Athens, with its wealth and naval power, and Sparta, with its military might, could have seen their rivalry replaced with the benefits of mutual trade and cooperation. In the ancient world, peace was difficult to sustain when competition for resources and power was the driving force. But in the interconnected world of the modern age, war becomes an absurdity when nations share so much of their prosperity.

In more recent history, World War I stands as a stark example of how a lack of economic interdependence can lead to catastrophic consequences. The great empires of Europe, each seeking to expand their influence and control, plunged the world into a war that destroyed generations. If nations like Britain, France, and Germany had been more economically interconnected, sharing supply chains and relying on each other for trade, perhaps their motives would have shifted. The war would have been unimaginable in a world where nations needed each other for survival, not just for dominance. Instead, economic isolationism and imperial rivalries were primary forces behind the devastating conflict. Friedman’s theory offers us a future where such a war could be prevented, where economic collaboration replaces military competition.

Let us also consider the example of the European Union. In the wake of World War II, the nations of Europe sought to ensure that the horrors of war would never be repeated. They did so not by preparing for battle, but by forging an economic union. Germany, France, and other nations put aside centuries of animosity, instead becoming entwined in a web of trade and economic reliance. The EU is a living testament to Friedman’s theory: though political and social challenges remain, war between its members has become unthinkable. Their interconnectedness, built on shared interests and trade, has ensured that their futures are bound together in peace.

Yet, O children, the lesson of the Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention is not just about global politics, but about the power of interdependence in every sphere of life. In your own lives, you will face conflicts—between nations, between people, and even within yourselves. But always remember that cooperation, mutual respect, and the recognition that we are all bound together in the shared pursuit of prosperity are the greatest weapons against strife. Just as nations cannot afford to fight when their well-being is intertwined, so too must you recognize the value of unity over division in all things. Trade, in the modern sense, is not just the exchange of goods, but the exchange of ideas, respect, and shared goals.

Thus, O children, let us strive to build a world where the global supply chain is not just a network of economic transactions, but a symbol of our shared humanity. Let us recognize that true strength lies not in conquest, but in the power of connection. If we can learn to rely on one another, to share in each other’s success, and to foster a spirit of cooperation, then perhaps we can avoid the horrors of war and create a world where peace is not just a dream, but a living reality. May you, in your time, continue the work of building bridges, not walls, and may you always choose the path of cooperation and understanding over that of division and conflict.