There's the assumption being made by the national security

Hear the words of Oliver North, a soldier seasoned in conflict and a voice hardened by the realities of war: “There's the assumption being made by the national security advisers to the Obama administration that the North Korean leadership is not suicidal, that they know they will be obliterated if they attacked the United States. But I would point that everything in South Korea and Japan is well within range of what they might want to do.” These words are not idle musings, but a sober warning about the peril of assumptions in the realm of leadership, strategy, and survival. For to misjudge an adversary’s intentions is to build castles upon sand, and the weight of nations may collapse when leaders see the world not as it is, but as they wish it to be.

The first part of this saying warns against assumption—the belief that because an enemy’s course seems irrational to us, it will be irrational to them. North speaks of the idea that North Korea would never dare attack, for such an act would lead to its obliteration. Yet history shows that men and nations often act against reason, driven not by logic but by pride, desperation, or ideology. To dismiss the possibility of reckless action is to blind oneself to the lessons of the past.

The second part of his warning points to the vulnerability of allies, saying that while the United States may be safe from immediate destruction, South Korea and Japan lie within the reach of North Korea’s weapons. This truth strikes at the heart of leadership: the duty not only to defend oneself but also to guard one’s friends. For the bond of alliance is sacred; if ignored, it weakens trust, and if broken, it invites calamity. To overlook the danger to others is not only careless but dishonorable.

History bears this lesson with sharp clarity. Before the Second World War, many leaders assumed that Adolf Hitler would not risk further aggression after gaining Austria and the Sudetenland. They believed he would avoid a larger conflict for fear of annihilation. Yet Hitler’s ambitions were not bound by reason, and his reach extended across Europe, plunging the world into war. The cost of such assumptions was counted in millions of lives. North’s words echo this ancient warning: never underestimate the danger of a leader willing to sacrifice much to achieve his aims.

Yet there is also the deeper truth about leadership and vigilance. A true leader must prepare not only for the most likely path, but for the most dangerous one. To hope for the best is natural; to prepare for the worst is wisdom. Assumptions breed complacency, and complacency in matters of survival is death. Leadership demands foresight—the ability to look beyond appearances, beyond wishful thinking, and to reckon honestly with the risks at hand.

The lesson for us, then, is not only about nations, but about life itself. How often do we assume that others will act as we would, that dangers will not reach us, that crises will remain distant? Yet wisdom demands we guard against the peril of assumption. We must be vigilant for the sake of those who depend on us, whether family, community, or nation. To ignore risk is to invite ruin; to face it with clear eyes is to preserve peace and stability.

Therefore, beloved listeners, let your practice be this: never let assumption take the place of preparation. Honor your responsibilities not only to yourself but to those within your reach. Watch for danger not with fear, but with readiness, for vigilance is the guardian of peace. And remember always North’s stern warning: assumptions in leadership may cost not only one’s own safety but the safety of allies. True wisdom lies in seeing beyond hope, into the reality of risk, and guiding with foresight, courage, and honor.