We don't know the probabilities of future events. Still, you have

In the words of Robert J. Shiller, we are reminded of the uncertainty that shapes our existence. The future, like the rolling waves of the ocean, remains elusive and unpredictable. No matter how much we try to quantify or calculate the possibilities of what lies ahead, the true probabilities of future events remain hidden from our sight. Yet, despite this uncertainty, we must act. In the face of the unknown, we must rely on intuition and gut feeling, trusting that even without complete knowledge, action is the only way to move forward. This is the essence of the world we inhabit—a world full of ambiguity, where decisions must often be made with incomplete information. To act is to embrace the unknown, to walk forward with the courage of the uncertain.

Consider the ancient warrior standing on the precipice of battle. They cannot know for certain what the future holds—whether the winds will shift, whether the enemy will strike unexpectedly, or whether their strategies will succeed. And yet, they do not hesitate. Their instincts, honed over years of training and experience, guide their actions. The warrior does not wait for the perfect moment, for the ideal conditions. They understand that action, grounded in intuition and experience, is the only path to victory. The same principle holds true for us today, where inaction can often be more dangerous than stepping forward with uncertainty.

Think of the great explorers who set sail to unknown lands, with little more than their courage and their gut feeling about the world’s vastness. Christopher Columbus, setting forth into the unknown waters, did not have a full understanding of the geography he would encounter, nor the exact path to reach the Indies. And yet, he took action, driven by an inner calling and a sense of possibility. He understood that the future was not predictable, but that only through action could the unknown be transformed into new opportunity. This is the world we live in—where knowledge may be limited, but action is the key to unlocking what lies ahead.

In the modern world, this principle is no less true. Entrepreneurs, like the founders of companies in the early days of the Silicon Valley revolution, could not have known with certainty which innovations would shape the future. They acted on a vision, a feeling, that something profound could be created from the chaos of the unknown. Steve Jobs, in the creation of the iPhone, did not have a clear map of how the world would respond. Instead, he followed an instinctual belief that technology could revolutionize the way we live. His gut feeling led him to take risks that no one else was willing to take. In the end, his actions reshaped the future, even though the path was not always clear.

This reliance on intuition and gut feeling teaches us that while knowledge is valuable, it is not the sole determinant of success. There will always be gaps in our understanding, moments when the future seems shrouded in fog. The great leaders of history, from Alexander the Great to Winston Churchill, acted despite the uncertainties of the future. They did not have all the answers, but they knew that without action, nothing would be accomplished. Their courage came not from knowing the outcome but from trusting in their own ability to shape the world through decisiveness.

The lesson here is one of courage and action in the face of uncertainty. In our own lives, we often find ourselves waiting for the perfect moment, the clearest path, or the ideal set of conditions. But the world does not wait for perfect conditions. We must learn to trust our intuition, to make decisions with the best information we have, and then act. Whether in our careers, relationships, or personal growth, we must accept that the future will never be entirely predictable. Failure and missteps are inevitable, but they are part of the process of moving forward.

The practical action here is simple: do not let uncertainty paralyze you. When faced with a decision, trust yourself enough to act, even without knowing all the outcomes. Let your gut feeling guide you, but do not be afraid of mistakes. Each step, even those that lead to failure, brings you closer to the life you are meant to create. In a world of unpredictability, it is action that will shape your future, not inaction. So, step forward with courage, and let the world reveal itself as you move through it.